Nico Collins - Misused Star or Consistently Inconsistent?

What I like about Nico Collins:

Prototypical NFL size
He plays physical and wins at the catch point
A slightly above average athlete for his size
Matched up against number 1 corners most of his career
Okay production in a very bad situation

It's hard to overstate just how near and dear Nico Collins is to my heart. As a Michigan football fan the truly talented skill position players have felt so few and far between over the past decade. The handful of names that have passed through have been sparks of excitement, and are darlings to me as a fan regardless of success at the next level. In this case I will do my best to be unbiased, and break down some of the facets of Collins's game. I know the ranking already reflects my bias as I do have Nico a good bit above consensus, but this article can hopefully help you parse between my bias and the player himself. This obviously won't be as glowing as the Najee piece and I will do my best to try to point out where things could go wrong.

Collins started this college football season by choosing to return for his senior year, but later opting out with the uncertainty surrounding the B1G season. Even when the conference had figured out a schedule and the season was set to start he instead signed with an agent, and decided on getting prepared for the draft. With how Michigan looked it is hard to blame him in hindsight. Although for how bad the offense was without him it begs the question of how large of a cog was he in this offense? Obviously it is impossible to know, and I won't speculate that it would change the course of the season in any meaningful way (it wouldn't have even if he had a good year). It's still a fun question to pose for a player that had high expectations.

Meanwhile in the year we didn't see Collins he managed to drop weight from his 2019 campaign, now sitting at 6'2 215lbs. This puts him in the realm of prototypical NFL size, with many of the biggest names (DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, the list goes on...) hovering around the same size. This is all good and great, but size only means so much. The game has to speak and show he uses that size effectively. Or rather there is talent there not just a good athlete. Which when looking at his college career, this is what makes Nico Collins such a hard player to evaluate.

It's hard to say that there was any sense of consistency for Collins throughout his time as a starter. The tough part about properly evaluating Collins is that we don't know how much of that is his fault. In his two years as a starter he played with Shea Patterson. Who, to put it bluntly, sucks. Sucks a lot in fact. Patterson was a staple of inconsistency and untapped potential at Michigan. Once heralded as the savior of a program with questions at the most important position, he often let the talent around him go to waste. He was later met with a litany of questions if he should have even retained the starting job for as long as he did. This absolutely must be taken into account when we are talking about Collins raw production. Seeing as how the counting stats might not show us an accurate depiction of Collins. Not only was quarterback play incredibly lackluster for two years running, but Michigan also ran two entirely different schemes in those two years. Former offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton was running a pro-style run heavy offense in 2018. This relegated the passing game to be used as a game managing tool and rather conservative a majority of the time. This was cast aside in 2019 for a more modern RPO driven spread approach under the current offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. While the idea seemed great coming into the year, the quarterbacks were not capable of executing the system well enough. So once again the talent on offense was going to waste. The way Collins was used was somewhat similar in both systems, but two different playbooks in two seasons is never an easy task for a developing receiver.

Despite all of this Collins stats still look half decent:

2018: 38 catches, 632 yards, 16.6 avg, 6 touchdowns

2019: 37 catches, 729 yards, 19.7 avg, 7 touchdowns

Those aren't numbers that jump off the page when you see them. Yet they are quietly very impressive when given context. In 2018, 632 yards was good enough for a 22.5% market share of passing yards. Or he accounted for 22.5% of the passing game by himself. This was good enough to nab him a breakout season at 19 years old. He followed this up with a 22.4% market share in 2019. Those figures are both with an average of 14.1% target share between the two seasons. So he only received around 14% of Patterson's looks yet he still managed to produce just under a quarter of the passing game by himself with limited looks. Collins was uber efficient with touches and was productive when given chances. It shows that good things happened with the ball going his way though, and that is what we are looking for when we draft players in dynasty. That and volume... here is where the water is going to get murky though. Why was Collins not targeted more? Was it an issue with his game, or a larger issue with Patterson and the offense as a whole?

It's both. Patterson probably wasn't looking his way enough, because any time the first read wasn't open he would tend to tuck the ball or force it regardless of coverage. With Nico being used primarily downfield he wouldn't get loads of the short work; or he would be missing for stretches at a time. This was also the area of the field Patterson struggled to utilize the most. At the same time Collins is a flawed but great talent. His routes can be hit or miss and he can be inefficient with his feet. Nico lets corners get hands on him a good bit too, and with his size it is somewhat expected. This results in a mixed bag against press. He sometimes can get off the line quickly and muscle through the contact, or flat out run past it with jumpy releases. On the other hand his routes can be completely disrupted and he can be held in check as a defender is close in tow. It really does feel like a 50/50 against press. This could be different now that his playing weight is significantly lower; from what he put on tape at Michigan he might struggle against physical corners at the line in the NFL. Adding on to potential flaws is the fact Collins can seem clumsy at times after the catch. It was hard to justify using him over the other receivers around him for screens and manufactured touches in space. He would seemingly get caught up and trip more often than not, but when he was able to stay on his feet it would usually result in chunk plays. The last glaring flaw is that he may need a runway to get going. The top end speed is there, but it looks to take Collins time to get to that point. The short area burst can be lacking, and it makes his game underneath less effective when you factor in the balance issues. These are all issues he can work on, and that are subject to change if he refines his game. That all being said there is still plenty to love about him already too.

This game against Florida is early in his career, but it shows the balance issues I touched on.

Enough about the flaws let's address what Nico is good at. His bread and butter is high pointing the ball down the field. This is due to his fantastic ball tracking and great hands he consistently showed off. He posted a very impressive 78% catch rate his sophomore season, and while that mark fell to 63% his junior year his hands are unquestionably a strength. He attacks the ball well in the air and has excellent body control. He is able to contort and twist however he may need to make a catch. This translates well to getting his feet down inbounds too. Letting him get a free release is asking for a DB to either get mossed, or straight toasted. As I said before his top end speed is above average and he poses to be a good threat to take the top off. He plays like he is 6'2 and 50/50 balls feel more like 70/30. Showing that even without separation he can operate well. His great hands and use of size make him a contested catch threat, and potential red zone nightmare. He can play over the middle of the field and doesn't seem to be timid when running crossing routes. This all bodes well for if a smart team can find a way to utilize him underneath, as his game would be more complete than what we have seen for now. Collins can also show inconsistent but nice flashes of great releases, as he did at the senior bowl a handful of times at the start of this month. Importantly, he has shown he can make things work even in the worst of situations. Which holds value to me as it takes true talent to shine through issues at quarterback.

Even among the blowout I think this game shows Collins game pretty well. He has multiple nice catches through his in air adjustments and solid hands. Specifically the play at 7:01, a perfect example of what I think of when I envision his game in my head.

His range of outcomes is incredibly wide as of right now. Draft capital will play a large factor into how many chances he will get for whatever team he ends up on. He could be a super value if he lands somewhere decent in the 2nd or 3rd round. Worthy of being taken in dynasty drafts everywhere. If he falls late like his former teammate DPJ did last year he should be viewed as nothing more than a high value waiver. As his outcomes are more likely to be Hakeem Butler-esque in that case. This volatility makes it hard to rank him properly until we know how much the league values him. For now I am erring on the side of high upside, and a good athletic profile will lead to a good enough landing spot early in day two.

My comp for Collins is: Bigger Tyrell Williams. He is going to be a threat down the field similar to how Williams has been for most of his career. I don't think he will ever be a consistent monster, but he will have his big games and likely frustrate the shit out of fantasy players. Somewhere in the 700-800 yard per season range once he settles into a role. His ceiling is Michael Thomas in my opinion, but that is a very large long shot for now. He is more of a very good WR3, with the likelihood of WR2 seasons mixed in until further notice.

Good Landing Spots:

This is going to assume he is taken with decent draft capital, and in no specific order just spots that could end up being beneficial for him.

Miami Dolphins

This is more about the depth chart than anything else. It's pretty barren outside of Geisicki and Parker, even then I am not crazy high on either of them. Tua has to throw the ball to someone, and Collins might make a nice threat on the sidelines for him. The only downside is they likely draft someone else earlier this year to soak up more of those targets. His playing time could be limited, but he is an upgrade over Preston Williams and Jakeem Grant at the very least.

Washington Football Team

Terry Mclaurin is a monster. He can't be the only threat there though, and the depth chart would be equally barren as Miami if not for him. Collins would slot in nicely across the field, and it would make sense for Washington to be taking a receiver in the 3rd or 4th round range.

Arizona Cardinals

Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella are not enough help for Kyler Murray as of right now. The Cardinals should be looking to free agency first, but Collins would be a good flier for them. He would land in a talented offense that loves to throw downfield and could scheme him free releases. This would be a damn good landing spot with Hopkins drawing the bulk of defensive attention.

Detroit Lions

I don't have a ton of faith in Jared Goff, nor the worst franchise in pro football. There would be loads of opportunity here seeing as Golladay is all but gone now. Marvin Jones is a question mark to return, and the Lions are in desperate need to hit the reset button on a roster that looks dead in the water (again).

New England Patriots

I don't love this because we don't know who is throwing him the ball. This would likely just end up being N'Keal Harry all over again, but with less hype. If he ends up here he might get some volume, but the future outlook is rough until we know more about the quarterback situation.

Chicago Bears

This echoes the same as New England. With Robinson gone, Mooney is likely the only returning starter. He'd fit in nicely here but it's Chicago, Ryan Pace, and Matt Nagy. Not inspiring, but Collins would get some volume.

Lastly the best game of his college career, to cap it off by showing his ceiling. This was a mauling and I know the competition isn't exactly the best. Still very impressive across the board.