Rashod Bateman - Close to a Lock
- Harrison Wudel
- Mar 23, 2021
- 7 min read
Why we love Bateman:
- He was a mega producer
- Early breakout
- Good size and good speed
- He is young
- Consistency
- Versatile and technically sound
- Amazing route runner with a high ceiling
We are rapidly approaching the draft, and due to unrelated causes I have managed to become increasingly busy and haven't been able to post as much as I would like. I finally get a chance to plant the flag for one of my dudes though. Rashod Bateman has somehow flown under the radar this offseason. This isn't to say that absolutely nobody is talking about him, but rather he just hasn't gotten enough love. He is seen as a fringe first to second round guy by many draft heads. He was even somehow left off of Chris Simms top-5 list. Seeing what he was able to do on the field, and the reports of his early athletic testing Bateman should be undoubtedly higher on boards around the draft space. If he leaves your draft in the second round, then there have been mistakes made. Hell I am willing to go as far as to say if he isn't the second receiver taken behind Ja'Marr Chase, there have been mistakes made.
While I feel as if this is true — I can understand why he might not garner the love others are getting. His game is quiet, but while quiet it's also efficient and ruthless. Playing at Minnesota didn't do him many favors with exposure either. Quarterback Tanner Morgan hit a sharp decline this year, and the Minnesota offense as a whole stagnating made it easy to overlook what Rashod has been able to accomplish in his three years as a starter. Even then his 2020 was somewhat remarkable when you take into account just how bad the offense around him was.
Bateman posted 472 yards reeling in 36 catches of his 56 targets in the 5 games he played this season. Decent enough, sure? What if I told you the Golden Gophers played 7 games in total this season, and even when taking the two games he missed into account, Bateman accrued 34% of the passing game. If we take those two games out then he accounted for 46% of the passing game by himself. En route to averaging 94 yards and 11 targets per game. The funniest part of all of this is that this was seen as a down year for Bateman.
This is because the two seasons before that set the bar incredibly high. Not only was Bateman on the field as a true freshman, but he managed to produce a 704 yard season. He commanded 27% of the targets the season he arrived on campus! This would be one thing if he were the only capable guy on the team, but he was playing alongside current Bucs receiver Tyler Johnson. While Johnson may never be a true world beater in the pros he was good enough to be drafted and carve out a small role and make plays for this year's super bowl winner.
Bateman then upped the ante even further as a sophomore posting 1,219 yards on 60 catches. There would undoubtedly be concerns if he were a massive compiler just working on volume alone; even while commanding an absolutely absurd average 28% target share through three years he managed to also average almost 16 yards per reception. This combination shows a special player statistically. He is very very similar to Allen Robinson in terms of college targets and yards per reception. For context specifically in EPA on Bateman's sophomore campaign efficiency:
EPA is expected points added or an analytical measurement of how valuable each catch was to his team. Meaning that he was not only catching lots of passes, but they were meaningful to the game due to down, distance, and score factored in.
That is a pretty good list of names if you follow college football you have almost assuredly heard of all of those players. Two of which were instant impact producers in the NFL this year.
The numbers are great, but how does he actually play? Well Bateman was classified as a technician
type of player but the further we are removed from the season the more it looks like he is just an all around freak. He sits at 6'2 and 210lbs so there are no size or weight concerns, but with his size came the label of being on the slower side. The thought process making the rounds was he has really great footwork, and is going to beat you with his route running. He was frequently compared to Keenan Allen. Yet reports are surfacing now that he might run in the 4.3's this spring after the expectation was to be in the high 4.4's to 4.5's. This is rather arbitrary as long as he lands somewhere within this range of outcomes. If he runs a 4.3 then great, all the more reason to be excited. 4.5 would be fine as well and probably just reinforce that mindset of him being more technically sound than athletically gifted.
The tape shows a player who has amazing footwork. One that can beat you down the sideline, as well as make his own yards after the catch. His freshman and sophomore seasons he was primarily an outside weapon, and was used at every level. Last year he was moved to the slot and showed he could play it relatively well. His deep work was cut for more underneath and YAC concepts. He isn't the best player to rack up the yards after catch, but he is capable. This was less efficient than what we saw from him before when he was used downfield, hence why some would classify this as a bad season. To me this just shows he has some versatility to his game, and will be able to play both inside and out at the next level. We would just want to see him outside for both fantasy purposes and to match his style more.
The defining aspect of his tape is that he is seemingly always open. The three largest strengths of his game are by far the separation, route running, and his hands. He seemingly finds himself open a lot through his quick feet and great releases. The separation and route running are intertwined in this way and display his ability as a receiver. He possesses elite change of direction and acceleration. With the ability to stop on a dime or manipulate routes he is a nightmare for corners to cover. It was no coincidence he was able to find himself open all the time. He shows a good knack for finding soft spots in zones. A la CeeDee Lamb, where he has good timing on routes to get to just the right spot for his quarterback. This game against Penn. State in 2019 was a clinic for him for the most part and shows some of his strengths.
Hands are most definitely a strength as well. He kept a steady 65% catch rate throughout his last two seasons. This could've been higher with a better quarterback as well seeing as how Morgan missed on some easy throws throughout all three years. Thanks to those Tanner Morgan accuracy issues, he even displayed flashes of the spectacular at times.
He isn't a bully or the most physical guy on the field. As I stated before too his YAC ability is limited. Even with all of this he has proven he can and should be a real dominant X receiver at the next level with his skill set.
So all in all Rashod Bateman was not only dominant. He was dominant every single season he played, and the focal point of the passing attack. What Bateman has been able to do should not be downplayed. It is so rare to find a complete college career from the moment a player arrives — when this does happen guys like this are in a special breath of air. Somehow Bateman has managed to go overlooked, regardless of how he stacks up to his peers and the greats that have come before him. There is an argument to be made that Bateman might have the most complete and impressive career of any receiver over the past two years. Yet here we are wondering if he will even be picked in the first round.
How this happens is somewhat beyond me, and I won't pretend to be smarter than NFL front offices. When it comes to Bateman this year I can say that it feels somewhat similar to Justin Jefferson at times where his name is getting lost in the crowd. Rondale Moore is the athletic darling of the class, and a total freak show. Ja'Marr Chase is the clear cut number one after outproducing Justin Jefferson on the same team, and posting historic numbers as a sophomore. Devonta Smith and Kadarius Toney are generating polarizing opinions. This has left Bateman somewhere by himself in a quiet pocket of the fantasy community even if there may be a consensus on the talent. Many dynasty analysts and community members are equally as high on him as I am, there are also equal amounts of draft heads that don't love him. It's hard to see a path where Bateman fails given what we know though, but the league and fantasy community don't always align in that sense.
Even among all the potential disconnect as a prospect if you were high on players like CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, or AJ Brown over the past two years. Then you should be chomping at the bit to see what Bateman can do as a rookie. An early declare with great size, great production, and likely second round draft capital minimum. He has the best college résumé of any receiver this year, including Chase due to the fact he was a producer for three years. That isn't to say his ceiling is as high or his career highs were as high. Rather he was able to be consistent, and that might be different had Chase played this year but we aren't here to discuss hypotheticals. He has vaulted himself into the clear cut number two receiver in my rankings, and I don't think the gap from him to Ja'Marr Chase is as large as some may say right now.
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